How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made AEK Larnaca to win 65%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.7 goals from Krasava Ypsonas FC and 1.8 from AEK Larnaca, so AEK Larnaca come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: AEK Larnaca to win. AEK Larnaca shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-1.8), and we make them about 66% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
AEK Larnaca have won two of the last two meetings.
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