What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Sonderjyske and 1.4 from Horsens, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.8 goals (xG 1.4-1.4) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 71%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. We make it about 71% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
