CSD Macará v Emelec: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made CSD Macará to win 54%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.4 goals from CSD Macará and 0.8 from Emelec, so CSD Macará come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: CSD Macará to win. CSD Macará are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-0.8), and we make them about 55% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.97, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.