How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Leones del Norte to win 57%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Leones del Norte and 0.8 from Técnico Universitario, so Leones del Norte come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Leones del Norte to win. Leones del Norte are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.8), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.85, which works out at about 54 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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