How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Guayaquil City to win 40%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Guayaquil City and 1.1 from Mushuc Runa, so Guayaquil City come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Guayaquil City to win. Guayaquil City are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.1), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.70, which works out at about 37 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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