What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Guayaquil City and 1.1 from Mushuc Runa, so Guayaquil City come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Guayaquil City come into this on two straight defeats. Mushuc Runa come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Guayaquil City to win. Guayaquil City are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.1), and we make them about 42% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.65, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
