What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Libertad and 1.6 from Independiente del Valle, so Independiente del Valle come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Libertad come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Independiente del Valle to win. Independiente del Valle shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.6), and we make them about 54% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
