How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Independiente del Valle to win 51%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Libertad and 1.6 from Independiente del Valle, so Independiente del Valle come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Independiente del Valle to win. Independiente del Valle shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.6), and we make them about 52% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.98, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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