What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Deportivo Cuenca and 0.9 from Guayaquil City, so Deportivo Cuenca come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Guayaquil City come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Deportivo Cuenca (Draw No Bet). Deportivo Cuenca are favoured here (xG 1.3-0.9), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Deportivo Cuenca defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Guayaquil City win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. The price is shorter than our own read of about 65%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
