What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Universidad Católica and 1.1 from Aucas, so Universidad Católica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Universidad Católica to win. Universidad Católica are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.1), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.84, which works out at about 54 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Aucas only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 57%.
