What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Leones del Norte and 0.9 from Orense, so Leones del Norte come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Leones del Norte to win. Leones del Norte are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-0.9), and we make them about 51% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Orense a draw or better. We only make this about 51%, so it's far from a lock.
