How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Aucas to win 46%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Manta and 1.4 from Aucas, so Aucas come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Aucas to win. Aucas shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.4), and we make them about 48% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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