How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Independiente del Valle and 0.9 from Aucas, so Independiente del Valle come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Aucas come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Independiente del Valle to win. Independiente del Valle are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.9), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Independiente del Valle have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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