How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Universidad Católica or Draw 79%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Universidad Católica and 1.0 from CSD Macará, so Universidad Católica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
CSD Macará come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Universidad Católica or Draw. This covers Universidad Católica or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Universidad Católica have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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