How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Mushuc Runa or Draw 81%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Mushuc Runa and 0.9 from Delfín, so Mushuc Runa come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Mushuc Runa or Draw. This covers Mushuc Runa or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.13, which works out at about 88 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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