What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Técnico Universitario and 1.4 from LDU de Quito, so LDU de Quito come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: LDU de Quito to win. LDU de Quito shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.4), and we make them about 47% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.89, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Técnico Universitario only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 47%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
