How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Brentford (Draw No Bet) 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Birmingham and 1.7 from Brentford, so Brentford come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Birmingham come into this on three straight draws. Brentford come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Brentford (Draw No Bet). Brentford are favoured here (xG 0.9-1.7), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Brentford defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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