What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Birmingham and 1.7 from Brentford, so Brentford come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Birmingham come into this on two straight draws. Brentford come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Brentford to win. Brentford shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.7), and we make them about 70% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.94, which works out at about 52 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Birmingham to spoil this. At around 70% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
