How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Bournemouth and 1.4 from Aston Villa, so Bournemouth come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Bournemouth come into this on two straight wins. Aston Villa come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Aston Villa to score 1 or fewer. This is about Aston Villa's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 71%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.51, which works out at about 66 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Aston Villa have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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