What to expect
We expect about 2.2 goals from Man City and 1.2 from Brighton, so Man City come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Brighton to score 1 or fewer. This is about Brighton's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.2 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 78%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Brighton have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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