Liverpool v Chelsea prediction

What to expect

Liverpool host Chelsea in the EFL Cup on 28 October 2026. Both clubs sit near the top of the table and a win will keep the home side in the hunt for the trophy while the visitors will try to stay in the competition. The numbers we have suggest Liverpool are a little stronger, with an expected 2.1 goals for them against 1.6 for Chelsea. That points to an open game with chances at both ends.

Liverpool have been in good form. In their last eight matches they have won six, drawn one and lost one. The most recent results are a 2-0 win over Brighton at home, a 4-3 victory against Villarreal at Anfield, a 2-1 win at Brentford, a 6-3 win away to Lask Linz, a 3-0 defeat to Manchester City at home and a 1-0 win at Bournemouth. That gives them four straight wins coming into this tie. In those eight games they have scored 18 and let in 11, kept three clean sheets and failed to find the net twice. Five of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them.

Chelsea’s recent run is less consistent. Over their last eight fixtures they have won four, drawn one and lost three. Their latest results are a 2-0 loss to Tottenham at home, a 2-0 win at Everton, a 5-1 victory over Bournemouth at home, a 3-0 defeat at Brentford, a 2-2 draw with Hull at home and a 6-3 win over Leeds United at home. On the road they have one win and two defeats in their last three away games. In total they have scored 20 and conceded 16, kept only one clean sheet and have been shut out twice. Six of those matches produced three or more goals and both teams scored in five of them.

The two sides have met five times before. Liverpool have won two, Chelsea have won two and one game ended level. Those meetings have produced an average of 3.4 goals. The most recent encounter was a 1-1 draw on 9 May 2026. Given the history of relatively high-scoring games and the fact that both teams are scoring frequently in recent weeks, we expect another open contest with goals on both sides.

Our pick is Liverpool or a draw at 1.37. The price matches our reading of the game and gives us a decent safety net. Liverpool have a 76 % chance of scoring at all and a 51 % chance of scoring twice or more, while Chelsea have a 64 % chance of scoring and a 33 % chance of scoring twice. If Liverpool manage to score at least once and keep the game close, the bet will succeed. It would only fail if Chelsea win outright, which our chance of that happening sits at about 25 %. The price looks good for that risk.