How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Fulham or Draw 73%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Fulham and 1.1 from Crystal Palace, so Fulham come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Fulham come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Fulham or Draw. This covers Fulham or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.26, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Crystal Palace have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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