What to expect
The game looks very even. Both teams are expected to score around one goal each – Bradford 1.3 and Burnley 1.2 – which adds up to roughly 2.6 goals in total. There is almost nothing separating them on those numbers, so we can expect a tight contest rather than a one-sided affair. A couple of chances on each side should be enough to decide the match.
Recent results give us a clue about how the game may unfold. Burnley have struggled in their last five league outings, failing to win any, drawing three and losing two, whether at home or away. That run suggests they are not firing on all cylinders, while Bradford have no contrasting data to point to a clear advantage. The pattern hints at a modest number of goals rather than a goal fest, but still enough to push the total over the 2.5 mark.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals. We think the price of 2.00 matches our own view of the match. The expected 2.6 goals means a goal from each side plus a third goal at any time will be enough, and that should happen about half the time according to the numbers we have.
For the pick to fail we would need a very clean game – either a 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 result. That would require both defenses to shut out the opposition completely, which feels unlikely given the recent lack of wins for Burnley. We are fairly confident in our view, but we acknowledge a 50 % chance of it not hitting.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
