How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 82%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Tottenham look the stronger side in this cup tie. The numbers we have suggest they will score around two goals while Charlton will be close to one. That gives a total of just under three goals on average. The game should not be a goal-fest; it feels like a fairly tight affair with a chance for a few chances, but not an open shoot-out.
In recent league outings Tottenham have been mixed, winning two, drawing one and losing two in their last five matches, both home and away. Charlton’s recent form isn’t listed, so we can only rely on the expectation that Tottenham have the edge. The pattern points to a modest scoring game rather than a high-scoring thriller.
We pick the Under 4.5 goals. Our thinking is simple: with an expected total of about 2.8 goals, the line is high enough that it would need five or more goals to lose our pick. The price of 1.31 is longer than what we see in the match, which makes it attractive. We feel confident about this choice.
It would only go wrong if the game turned into a goal-filled scramble, with both teams finding the net three times or more. That would be a big surprise given the expected scores. Our view is strong – we think there’s an 85 % chance the total stays under 4.5 goals.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
