What to expect
We expect about 3.0 goals from Chelsea and 0.8 from Luton, so Chelsea come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Chelsea come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Chelsea to win. Chelsea are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.1-0.8), and we make them about 87% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 87 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Luton only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty.
