How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Under 4.5 goals 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Chelsea look the stronger side in this cup tie. Our goal expectations are about three for the Blues and just under one for Luton. The numbers suggest both teams will have chances, so the match should have some open moments but still feel a bit tight.
In recent league play Chelsea have been decent, winning three of their last five games and coming into this fixture on two straight wins. Luton have struggled a bit, with only one win in their last five and two draws. In their last two meetings Chelsea have won both, the most recent ending 3-2 at Luton’s ground. Those games have averaged four goals, which fits with the idea of an open encounter.
We pick the under 4.5 goals. The price is 1.30, which is longer than we think the game will produce, so it looks attractive. Our own view is that the total will sit around 3.8 goals – roughly three for Chelsea and less than one for Luton – and the chance of staying under the line is about 81 %.
For the pick to fail we would need a very high-scoring game, at least five goals in total. That would require both sides to be unusually efficient in front of goal. We feel fairly confident in our view, but we acknowledge the risk if the match opens up more than expected.
Recent meetings
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