What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Preston and 1.8 from Everton, so Everton come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Preston come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Everton to win. Everton shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.8), and we make them about 76% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.57, which works out at about 64 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Preston to spoil this.
