How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Under 4.5 goals 84%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Fulham look clearly the stronger side in this cup tie. Our goal expectations are about 2.3 for Fulham and 0.5 for Wimbledon, so we expect just under three goals in total. The numbers suggest a game that will not be a goal-fest. It should feel a bit tight, with Fulham in control but not necessarily breaking everything open.
In the league Fulham have been inconsistent over their last five games, winning two, drawing one and losing two, whether at home or away. Wimbledon’s recent results are not given, but the pattern from Fulham’s side shows they can both score and be stopped. The past meetings do not give us extra clues, but the current expectation of 2.8 goals overall points to a modest scoring rate.
We pick the Under 4.5 goals. The price is 1.35, which is longer than what we think the game will produce, so it looks attractive. With an 87 % chance of staying under that line, the bet feels safe. The line only loses if the match produces five or more goals, which is unlikely given the goal expectations we have.
It would have to go very wrong for us to lose. A sudden flood of goals – five or more – would be needed, which would mean both teams scoring far beyond what the numbers suggest. That is a low-probability event, so we are holding this view strongly.
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