What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Everton and 1.4 from Newcastle, so Everton come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.0 goals between the two (xG 1.6-1.4), landing about 52% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Everton are unbeaten in their last five — two wins and three draws.
✓Newcastle have won three of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
28 Feb 2026Newcastle 2 - 3 Everton
29 Nov 2025Everton 1 - 4 Newcastle
25 May 2025Newcastle 0 - 1 Everton
5 Oct 2024Everton 0 - 0 Newcastle
2 Apr 2024Newcastle 1 - 1 Everton
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