What to expect
We expect about 0.3 goals from Fleetwood Town and 2.4 from Arsenal, so Arsenal come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Arsenal come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Arsenal to win. Arsenal shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.3-2.4), and we make them about 92% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 91 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.07, which works out at about 93 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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