Fleetwood Town v Arsenal prediction

What to expect

We expect about 0.3 goals from Fleetwood Town and 2.5 from Arsenal, so Arsenal come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Fleetwood Town come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 2.8 goals (xG 0.3-2.4), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 83%).

We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.