Bradford v Peterboro prediction

What to expect

Bradford host Peterboro in the EFL Cup on 27 October. Both teams sit mid-table, but the numbers show Bradford as the stronger side. They have an 81 % chance of finding the net at all, while Peterboro’s chance sits at 55 %. A win for Bradford would push them a little higher in the cup, and Peterboro will be hoping to stay in the competition. The two clubs have met three times before, with Bradford winning twice and one draw, the latest encounter a 2-0 victory for the home side in August.

Bradford come into this tie unbeaten in their last eight matches, recording four wins and four draws. Their most recent games have been a 0-0 draw with Oxford away, another goalless stalemate against Burton away, a 2-0 home win over Stevenage, a 0-0 home draw with Leyton Orient, a 4-0 away victory at Rotherham United and a 1-1 draw at Reading. In those eight outings they have scored nine goals and let in just one, keeping clean sheets in seven games. They have failed to score in three matches and have only one game with three or more goals. The side played three days ago, so they are on a short turnaround.

Peterboro have struggled more, managing only one win, three draws and four defeats in their last eight fixtures. Their recent results are a 1-1 draw with Bromley away, a 4-1 loss at Huddersfield, a 2-2 home draw with Burton, a 3-1 away win over Leicester, a 1-0 loss at Stockport and a 2-0 defeat at Doncaster. Over those eight games they have scored nine and conceded 14. They have been shut out twice and have been involved in four matches with three or more goals, while both sides have scored in six of those games. Like Bradford, they also played three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.

The three previous meetings have produced an average of two goals per game, with Bradford winning two of those and the other ending level. The most recent encounter was a 2-0 win for Bradford in August. Given Bradford’s defensive solidity – seven clean sheets in eight games – and Peterboro’s tendency to concede, this fixture is likely to be low-scoring. Bradford are expected to find the net, but Peterboro have struggled to score on the road and have only a 22 % chance of hitting the net twice.

Our pick is Peterboro to score one goal or fewer. The price of 1.31 matches our view of the game. We think there is a 74 % chance this will happen because Peterboro have failed to score in two of their last eight games and have only a 55 % chance of scoring at all. For the bet to go wrong they would need to find the net twice, which only has a 22 % likelihood. If they manage a single goal, the pick stays safe.