How it turned out
We projected about 3.9 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Norwich not to score 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Man City host Norwich in the EFL Cup on 17 September 2026. City sit near the top of the table, while Norwich are down in the lower half. A win for City will keep them in the hunt for the top spots, and a loss would give Norwich a rare boost in the league. The two clubs have met twice before in recent years, with City winning both games and the matches averaging four-and-a-half goals. The numbers we have suggest City will dominate, but there is still a chance for both sides to find the net.
City have been in fine form over their last eight games, winning six, drawing one and losing one. Their most recent fixtures are a 1-0 win away at Manchester United, a 1-0 victory at home over Coventry, a 4-1 away win at Crystal Palace and a 2-1 home win over Bournemouth. Before that they fell 2-1 at home to Aston Villa and drew 1-1 away at Bournemouth. That gives them four straight wins coming into this tie. In those eight games they have scored 16 goals, let in only five and kept four clean sheets. Five of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them.
Norwich’s form over the same period has been much less consistent. In their last eight outings they have won three and lost five. Their most recent results are a 4-3 defeat away at Middlesbrough, a 2-1 home win over Birmingham, a 3-1 away win at Sheffield United, a 1-0 loss away at Stoke, a 4-1 home win over Burnley and a 3-0 loss away at Millwall. Their last five road games contain only one win and four defeats. Across those eight matches Norwich have scored 14 and conceded 15, failing to find the net in two games. Six of the eight fixtures saw three or more goals and both sides scored in six of them.
When the two clubs have met recently City have been the clear winners. The most recent encounter was a 4-0 victory for City at Norwich on 12 February 2022. Those two meetings produced an average of 4.5 goals, showing that when City are at home they tend to create many chances. Given City’s recent scoring record and Norwich’s difficulty away from home, we expect a game with chances at both ends but with City largely in control.
Our pick is Norwich not to score. We think the chance of a clean sheet for Norwich is about 77 per cent, and the price of 1.83 is longer than our own reading of the game. If Norwich manage to find the net, it would have to be a rare away goal against a side that has kept four clean sheets in eight games and has a 67 per cent chance of scoring at all. Otherwise the bet looks solid.
Recent results
Man City have won two of the last two meetings.
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