What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Everton and 1.4 from Newcastle, so Everton come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Everton come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.0 goals between the two (xG 1.6-1.4), landing about 52% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
Recent meetings
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