What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Liverpool and 1.8 from Chelsea, so Liverpool come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.9 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.9 goals between the two (xG 2.1-1.8), landing about 51% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Liverpool are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓Chelsea have won three of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in five of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
9 May 2026Liverpool 1 - 1 Chelsea
4 Oct 2025Chelsea 2 - 1 Liverpool
4 May 2025Chelsea 3 - 1 Liverpool
20 Oct 2024Liverpool 2 - 1 Chelsea
31 Jan 2024Liverpool 4 - 1 Chelsea
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