What to expect
Our pick: Not both teams to score. There should be goals here — around 2.7 between the two (xG 1.4-1.3) — but they look like coming from one end. A clean sheet for one side is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Nott'm Forest have won two of their last five.
✓Leeds have won three of their last five.
✓Three of the last four meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last four meetings.
Recent meetings
6 Feb 2026Leeds 3 - 1 Nott'm Forest
9 Nov 2025Nott'm Forest 3 - 1 Leeds
4 Apr 2023Leeds 2 - 1 Nott'm Forest
5 Feb 2023Nott'm Forest 1 - 0 Leeds
One thing to watch
A single defensive slip or a late set-piece, and the clean sheet this needs is gone. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 54%.
