How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Coventry to win 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Plymouth and 2.4 from Coventry, so Coventry come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Coventry to win. Coventry shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-2.4), and we make them about 75% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.65, which works out at about 61 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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