What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Stevenage and 1.2 from Reading, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.5 goals in total (xG 1.3-1.2), keeping it under more often than not (about 51%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. The price is shorter than our own read of about 51%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
