How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Al Ahly SC to win 68%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.7 goals from Al Mokawloon Al Arab and 1.9 from Al Ahly SC, so Al Ahly SC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Al Ahly SC to win. Al Ahly SC shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-2.0), and we make them about 70% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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