What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Pyramids FC and 0.6 from El Gouna FC, so Pyramids FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Pyramids FC come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Pyramids FC to win. Pyramids FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.6), and we make them about 68% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
El Gouna FC only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 68% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
