How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Wadi Degla FC to win 38%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Modern Sport FC and 1.1 from Wadi Degla FC, so Wadi Degla FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Wadi Degla FC to win. Wadi Degla FC shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.1), and we make them about 39% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.60, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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