What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Modern Sport FC and 1.1 from Wadi Degla FC, so Wadi Degla FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Wadi Degla FC to win. Wadi Degla FC shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.1), and we make them about 39% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.75, which works out at about 36 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Modern Sport FC a draw or better. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 39%.
