What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from National Bank and 0.8 from Ghazl Al Mahalla, so National Bank come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: National Bank to win. National Bank are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.8), and we make them about 46% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Ghazl Al Mahalla a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 46%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
