What to expect
We expect about 2.2 goals from Gornik Zabrze and 1.3 from Wisla, so Gornik Zabrze come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Gornik Zabrze come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Gornik Zabrze to win. Gornik Zabrze are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.3), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.15, which works out at about 47 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Wisla a draw or better. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 58%.
