How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Under 3.5 goals 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Motor Lublin and 1.6 from GKS Katowice, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Motor Lublin come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 3.1 goals in total (xG 1.5-1.6), keeping it under more often than not (about 70%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
GKS Katowice have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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