What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Motor Lublin and 1.6 from GKS Katowice, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Motor Lublin come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 3.1 goals in total (xG 1.5-1.6), keeping it under more often than not (about 70%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. At around 70% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
