How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Widzew Lodz and 0.8 from Korona Kielce, so Widzew Lodz come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Korona Kielce come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.0 goals between the two (xG 1.2-0.8), landing about 73% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
An early goal can kill the tempo just as easily as spark it, and a quiet second half leaves this short. We make it about 73% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
