How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Lech Poznan to win 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Lech Poznan and 1.1 from Wisla, so Lech Poznan come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Lech Poznan to win. Lech Poznan are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.1), and we make them about 60% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.76, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Lech Poznan have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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