How it turned out
We projected about 4.4 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Aalesund to score 1 or fewer 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.1 goals from Molde and 1.3 from Aalesund, so Molde come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Molde come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Aalesund to score 1 or fewer. This is about Aalesund's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 77%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Molde have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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