How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Valerenga to score 2 or fewer 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Valerenga and 1.4 from Fredrikstad, so Valerenga come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Valerenga to score 2 or fewer. This is about Valerenga's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 76%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Valerenga have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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