What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from AZ Alkmaar and 1.3 from Go Ahead Eagles, so AZ Alkmaar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
AZ Alkmaar come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.9-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 64%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
One well-drilled defence, or a game that turns one-sided, and this is gone. We make it about 64%: a lean, not a lock.
