How it turned out
We projected about 4.0 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Feyenoord to win 82%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The numbers tell us this is a clear mismatch. Feyenoord are expected to score about three goals while Den Haag will struggle to find one. That gap makes Feyenoord the stronger side. With a total of four goals expected, the game should have chances at both ends, but the balance leans heavily toward the home team.
Looking back, Feyenoord have only managed two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five league outings, whether at home or away. Den Haag’s recent record isn’t given, but the pattern shows Feyenoord can still pick up points even when they have been inconsistent. The past results reinforce the idea that Feyenoord are likely to edge this one.
Our pick is a simple win for Feyenoord. We see an 84 % chance they will finish on top. The price of 1.17 matches our view of the game, so it looks like a sensible bet. It is a clean choice compared with looking for a higher price elsewhere.
For this to go wrong, Den Haag would need to surprise us with a strong defensive display and limit Feyenoord’s chances. A single goal from Den Haag could also make the game tighter than we expect. Even with that risk, we hold our view strongly because the goal expectations and the 84 % chance leave little room for doubt.
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