What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Zwolle and 2.1 from Nijmegen, so Nijmegen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 3.5 goals in total (xG 1.4-2.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 75%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. We make it about 75% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
