How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even when you look at the numbers. Zwolle are expected to score about 1.4 goals and Nijmegen about 2.1, so together that’s roughly 3.5 goals. That tells us the match will have chances at both ends and is likely to be open rather than a defensive slog.
Recent numbers point to Nijmegen being the stronger side. Their expected goal tally is higher, which suggests they have the edge in attack. When two teams with those figures meet, the pattern usually ends up with a moderate amount of scoring – not a flood of goals, but enough to keep things interesting.
Our pick is Under 4.5 goals. The price is 1.33, which sits close to what we see in the match. We think the total will stay around 3.5 goals, so five goals would be needed for us to lose. That makes the chance of the bet succeeding about 75 out of 100. It’s a close call, not a slam-dunk, but the odds match our view.
For us to be wrong, the game would have to turn into a goal-fest, with both sides finding the net three or more times. That would push the total over 4.5. We are fairly confident in our view, but we know a sudden burst of goals would flip the result. Our belief is solid, though not unshakable.
Recent meetings
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