What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Cambuur and 2.5 from Twente, so Twente come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Cambuur come into this on two straight defeats. Twente come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Twente to win. Twente shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-2.5), and we make them about 73% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Cambuur to spoil this. We make it about 73% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
