How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Willem II and 1.9 from Heerenveen, so Heerenveen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Willem II come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.1 goals (xG 1.3-1.8), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 81%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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