How it turned out
The game finished with 5 goals. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. Low-scoring lean. The model projects about 2.7 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. At around 69% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
