Groningen v For Sittard: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 78%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

The match looks fairly even in terms of how many goals each side might score, but the numbers show Groningen a bit stronger. They are expected to net about 1.8 goals while For Sittard should manage around 1.1. That adds up to roughly three goals in total, so the game is likely to stay tight rather than open up into a goal-fest.

Looking at recent numbers, the expected tally of three goals suggests a modest scoring pattern. Both teams have been averaging just over a goal each per game, and when they have met before the total has usually stayed close to that level. The pattern points to a contest where neither side will dominate the score sheet.

We pick the Under 4.5 goals. The price on that line is 1.32, which is longer than what we see in the game, making it an attractive offer. With an expected three goals – about 1.8 for Groningen and 1.1 for For Sittard – the line gives plenty of space before it would be broken. It would need five or more goals to lose us, and we think that will happen only about 20 % of the time.

The pick would go wrong if both attacks suddenly click and produce a flurry of chances, pushing the total past four goals. That would require a big shift from the expected three-goal picture. We are fairly confident in our view, holding it strongly, but we acknowledge the small chance of a high-scoring surprise.

Recent meetings